Forecast of China-U.S. Ocean Freight Rates in March 2025

February 28, 2025

The China-U.S. ocean freight market is expected to remain volatile in March 2025, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, seasonal demand shifts, and operational disruptions. Based on recent industry trends and carrier announcements, here’s a comprehensive outlook for the upcoming month:

1. Sustained Rate Hikes Amid Tight Capacity

Multiple major carriers, including Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) and FAK (Freight All Kinds) rate adjustments effective from March 1, 2025. For instance:

Maersk raised rates for Far East-to-North Europe and Mediterranean routes to $6,200 per 40ft container.
CMA CGM imposed a $6,900/40ft FAK rate for Far East-to-Mediterranean routes.
While these announcements focus on European lanes, the spillover effect is likely to tighten capacity on transpacific routes, pushing up U.S.-bound freight rates.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) shows recent spikes:

Shanghai to U.S. West Coast: $4,198/TEU (up 27% in two weeks).
Shanghai to U.S. East Coast: $5,642/TEU (up 15% in the same period).
These trends suggest carriers will leverage strong demand to justify further hikes in March.

2. Geopolitical and Operational Risks

Several factors threaten to exacerbate rate volatility:

Red Sea Crisis: Continued rerouting of vessels via the Cape of Good Hope adds 11,000 nautical miles to journeys, increasing fuel costs by $1 m i l l i o n p e r v o y a g e a n d r e d u c i n g e f f e c t i v e c a p a c i t y : c i t e [6] . A n a l y s t s w a r n t h a t p r o l o n g e d d i s r u p t i o n s c o u l d p u s h s p o t r a t e s t o w a r d C O V I D - e r a p e a k s o f$
U.S. Port Labor Tensions: The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has threatened strikes at East and Gulf Coast ports, prompting importers to front load shipments. Maersk has urged customers to retrieve containers before March 15 to avoid delays.
Tariff Uncertainty: Anticipated trade policy changes under the new U.S. administration may trigger preemptive cargo surges, further straining capacity.

3. Seasonal Demand Patterns

March typically sees a post-Lunar New Year rebound in manufacturing activity. Factories in Asia resume operations by late January, leading to a cargo surge in February and March. This year, however, demand is amplified by:

Inventory Restocking: U.S. retailers rebuilding stocks after holiday sales.
E-commerce Growth: Companies like Shein and Temu are driving higher demand for expedited shipping, indirectly pressuring ocean freight capacity.

4. Market Outlook and Predictions

Short-Term Surge: Analysts project rates to rise 10–15% in early March, with carriers capitalizing on pre-strike and pre-tariff cargo spikes. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) forecasts upward momentum for transpacific rates due to these factors.
Potential Moderation: By late March, rates may stabilize as seasonal demand eases. Freightos predicts a slight dip in Q1 2025, though rates will remain above pre-2024 levels due to Red Sea diversions.
Long-Term Risks: Persistent port congestion (e.g., Singapore’s 7-day vessel wait times) and equipment shortages could sustain elevated rates through Q2.

Conclusion

March 2025 is poised to be a challenging month for shippers. While carriers benefit from high rates, importers face mounting costs and operational hurdles. Proactive measures—such as booking 4–6 weeks in advance and diversifying ports—are critical to mitigate risks. Stakeholders must monitor labor negotiations, tariff policies, and Red Sea developments closely, as these variables will dictate the trajectory of freight rates beyond March.

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